Lisy-Plan (2024-2028)

In the global effort to develop a bioeconomy, many countries define strategies promoting bio-based products to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while safeguarding ecosystem services. However, it is not known whether those strategies will reach their objectives in the long term, mainly due to the complex interaction between nature and humans. This project responds to this research need by combining life cycle and system thinking to explore the long-term effects of policy instruments considering nature and human interactions. To achieve this goal, we will mainly combine system dynamics (SD) agent-based modeling (ABM), life cycle assessment (LCA), and multiregional Input-Output table (MRIO), which are four approaches that are exclusive but could bring essential assets to support agricultural policymaking. However, studies integrating them in the same model are rare. This proposal will develop four modules to gain knowledge and collect data (Module 1), construct a hard-coupled simulation model (SD and ABM, Module 2) evaluation model (LCA and MRIO, Module 3), and its application (Module 4) in three territories of Belgium, Switzerland, and Greece to analyze and compare the sustainability performance of their alternative strategies. The integrated modeling framework will enhance understanding of system dynamics, facilitate dialogue among stakeholders, and provide valuable insights for policy formulation.

FNRS PDR Waeve

ULB, ETH Zurich

Wouter Achten, Edgar Towa, Stephan Pfister (ETH), Yu Yue (ETH), Tianran Ding (LIST)