COGITO – Coping with Climate Debt through Just Transition: Exploration and Analysis of Scenarios for Brussels

In the absence of adequate mitigation and adaptation policies, climate change is likely, in the coming years, to further exacerbate long-standing social-ecological inequalities. This perspective is rooted in a trajectory shaped by past and present modes of living that are ecologically unsustainable, and that have allowed most of us to benefit from prosperity borrowed from future generations. We are therefore indebted to these generations and have a responsibility to provide them with a more just and secure future.

The imperatives of “just transitions” offer a way out of this dynamic of intergenerational debt by proposing an alternative path, one that limits the unequal impacts of climate change and reduces ecological degradation, while also addressing pre-existing inequalities to ensure a good and fulfilling life for the next generations.

The COGITO project, conducted as part of the Innoviris Prospective Research 2022 programme on the theme of “debts”, explores just transition as a lever to help the Brussels-Capital Region reduce its climate debt, and thereby do justice to future generations.

Since its emergence in the 1970s, the concept of just transition has gained prominence in policy agendas at all governance levels. Originally focused on protecting industrial workers from job losses due to environmental regulations, it has evolved into a broader social-ecological project that tackles social inequalities and ecological degradation together. This ambition of bridging social justice and ecological sustainability objectives is particularly relevant in urban contexts, where social and ecological issues tend to concentrate and intertwine.

Despite the growing importance of just transition in urban planning and policy, research on the topic remains limited, and often retrospective or evaluative. As a result, future-oriented research on just urban transitions is lacking. This gap is particularly evident in Brussels, where existing studies mostly focus on analysing present-day social-ecological inequalities, rather than on exploring their possible future evolutions or envisioning alternative, just and sustainable urban futures.

In response to this gap, COGITO investigates the following main research question: “What are the possible future evolutions of social-ecological inequalities in the context of just transitions in the Brussels-Capital Region by 2050?”

The project addresses this question by building and analysing just transition scenarios towards carbon neutrality and climate resilience in the Brussels-Capital Region by 2050. These scenarios focus more specifically on three strategic domains that strongly influence social-ecological inequalities and are therefore key to achieving a just transition in Brussels: mobility, housing, and green infrastructures.

Rather than predictions, the scenarios explore different possible futures that help illuminate the key issues, conflicts, and trade-offs inherent in just urban transition processes. By doing so, they provide a foundation for building a shared, ambitious and compelling vision of a just and sustainable future for Brussels — a vision that is essential to ensuring a just transition.

COGITO builds on a participatory approach inspired by the French school of Prospective, which explores possible futures of a system — in this case, social-ecological inequalities — by analysing the interactions between its different components. It involves three main phases, namely:

• Analysis of the system of social-ecological inequalities in mobility, housing and green infrastructures in Brussels today

• Exploration of possible future evolutions of this system by 2050, through four scenarios guided by contrasting visions of a just transition to carbon neutrality and climate resilience

• Formulation of policy recommendations and orientations for ensuring a just transition in Brussels

Participation is at the heart of this approach. A diverse group of stakeholders from public agencies, civil society organisations, citizen movements, and academia contribute throughout the scenario development and analysis process. This collective brings together a wide range of expertise on the multiple dimensions of social-ecological inequalities in the areas of mobility, housing, and green infrastructure in Brussels.

• The participatory workshops organized as part of COGITO mobilise creative and interactive methods to stimulate imagination and critical reflection. These include, among others, imaginary future newspapers, participatory mapping, and role-playing exercises.

The publications already available can be found on the COGITO website. To stay informed about upcoming ones, follow COGITO on LinkedIn!

• Coordinator

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

• Partners        

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

• Just transition
• Social-ecological inequalities 
• Transition governance
• Futures studies
• Urban studies 
• Brussels studies

• Dr. Aurore Fransolet (ULB - SONYA), Project Coordinator
• Prof. Tom Bauler (ULB - SONYA)
• Prof. Francesc Baró (VUB - CGIS, Cosmopolis)
• Dr. Deborah Lambert (ULB - Cosmopolis, BCUS)
• Dr. Nicola Da Schio (VUB - Cosmopolis, BCUS)
• Dr. Amy Phillips (VUB - CGIS, BCUS) 
• Dr. Julien Vastenaekels (ULB - SONYA)
• Tao An Tung (ULB - SONYA)