Rethinking the water conflict / cooperation duality in the Syr Darya basin (Central Asia)

Water governance faces specific multifaceted challenges linked to the disturbance of the water cycle, intricately linked to the complexities of socio-ecological systems. While water has often been dubbed the object of "the 21st century's wars", this study argues against environmental determinism. It emphasizes that effective water management and political will, rather than mere scarcity, is pivotal in understanding these dynamics.

Water sharing is contentious and fraught with conflicting interests among various stakeholders in regions such as Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan, controlling 70% of the Syr Darya River's flow, is entangled in tensions with neighboring countries, especially in fragmented spaces such as the Fergana Valley. The already complex situation is further compounded by the impacts of climate change on the river's flow.

Through a detailed analysis of Kyrgyzstan's case, this study delves into the coexistence of water cooperation and conflicts across different scales and the role of water in these dynamics. Additionally, it seeks to evaluate climate change's role as a new factor in this delicate balance, as it has the potential to either exacerbate existing conflicts or facilitate enhanced cooperation.